Hey,
Welcome back to Issue 5 of The NFL Lens Newsletter.
This week we're launching the historical case study series properly — and we're starting with the clearest snap rate creep signal in recent fantasy football history.
If you've been following the channel you'll know Kyren Williams features heavily in our 2026 analysis as a Strong Buy. The reason goes back to 2023 — and what the data was showing weeks before anyone was paying attention.
Let's get into it.
🏈 THE DEEP DIVE — Video 10 Preview
Before the case study — a quick note on this week's video.
Video 10 drops Wednesday at 3pm GMT and it's our most counterintuitive argument yet.
"The Eagles Are Better Without AJ Brown — And the Numbers Prove It"
The narrative says the Eagles' window closes without their best receiver. The data says something completely different.
The defence that allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL over two consecutive seasons is still there. The best offensive line in football is still there. A dual-threat quarterback whose floor is guaranteed regardless of who lines up outside him is still there.
AJ Brown was a spectacular piece of the structure. He was never the structure itself.
Full breakdown on the channel at 3pm Wednesday — link below.
📊 THE FANTASY EDGE STATS TABLE — Historical Case Study #2
How the snap rate data predicted Kyren Williams' 2023 breakout before the market saw it coming
The situation — September 2023
It was Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season. The Los Angeles Rams had just released Cam Akers — their incumbent starter — after a disastrous Week 1 performance. The backfield was suddenly open.
Kyren Williams was a fifth-round pick from Notre Dame who had spent his entire rookie season injured. He had 44 career touches. His fantasy ADP was an afterthought — available on virtually every waiver wire in America.
The consensus reaction: stream Williams for a week or two until the Rams figure out their backfield situation.
The snap rate data said something completely different.
What the numbers showed
Here's what happened to Williams' snap share in the first four weeks after Akers' release:
Week | Snap Share | Snap Count | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 39% | 53 snaps | Sharing with Akers |
Week 2 | 95% | 67 snaps | Akers released — Williams takes over |
Week 3 | 100% | 64 snaps | Every single offensive snap |
Week 4 | 88% | 58 snaps | McVay confirmed starter |
In Weeks 2 and 3 combined Williams played 131 of 135 possible snaps — the most of any running back in the NFL by a significant margin.
That's not a committee. That's not a timeshare. That's McVay telling you — through the most expensive signal available — exactly who his running back is.
The signal that mattered most
The snap share was the headline number. But the signal that confirmed the breakout was happening was Williams' passing down snap rate.
McVay kept Williams on the field on third and long. He kept him in during the two-minute drill. He used him in red zone passing packages.
That's the three-down back archetype confirmed. In Sean McVay's system — one of the most sophisticated offences in the NFL — a running back who handles passing downs is the most valuable asset in the backfield. The passing down snap rate told you this wasn't a temporary arrangement. It was a permanent role.
The managers who saw this in Week 2 had a league-winning asset on their waiver wire. Most managers waited until Williams' statistical breakout made the national conversation in Week 5 or 6. By then the waiver priority was gone.
What happened next
Williams finished the 2023 season — in just 12 games due to injury — with nearly 100 rushing yards per game and 15 touchdowns. He finished as a top-five fantasy running back for the weeks he played.
The snap rate called it in Week 2. The statistics confirmed it in Week 6.
The gap between those two data points is where the fantasy edge lives.
The 2026 connection
This is why Williams is our strongest Strong Buy for 2026.
The snap rate story from 2023 has a 2025 sequel. His passing down snap rate — the signal that confirmed the 2023 breakout — has held consistently across two full seasons. McVay has never moved away from him on critical situations. He out-touched Blake Corum in all three playoff games last season.
The market is drafting him as RB16. The snap rate data — now three years of consistent signal — says that price is too cheap.
Next week: Puka Nacua 2023 — the undrafted first read.
🧠 THE ANALYST'S EDGE
This week: The Snap Rate Creep Signal — how to identify it before the market does
The snap rate creep signal is the most reliable role change indicator in fantasy football. Here's how to use it:
What it is: A running back's snap rate rising 5%+ per week for three or more consecutive weeks.
Why it works: Coaching staffs don't change snap rates randomly. When a running back's snap share rises consistently over multiple weeks it means the coaching staff is making a deliberate decision — building trust, expanding the role, preparing for a larger workload. That decision shows up in the snap data weeks before it shows up in the statistics.
The three questions to ask:
Is the snap rate rising for three or more consecutive weeks?
Is the player appearing on passing downs and in the two-minute drill?
Has a competing back's role been reduced or eliminated?
If the answer to all three is yes — the signal is confirmed. Act before the statistics make it obvious.
Williams in 2023 answered all three in Week 3.
📅 COMING SOON — The Fantasy Edge
A quick reminder — The Fantasy Edge course launches in July.
The full snap rate creep signal — along with five other role change signals — is covered in complete detail in Module 7 of the course. Seven templates. Nine modules. Everything you need to apply this framework to your 2026 draft.
Waitlist opens in late June. Waitlist members get the lowest price we'll ever offer.
More details coming soon.
📺 THIS WEEK ON THE CHANNEL
Video 10 is live Wednesday at 3pm GMT — "The Eagles Are Better Without AJ Brown — And the Numbers Prove It."
Two Shorts follow Thursday and Friday applying the same analytical framework to specific fantasy implications.
See you Wednesday.
— The NFL Lens
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