Hey,
Welcome back to Issue 7 of The NFL Lens Newsletter.
This week's historical case study is about the tight end position — and specifically about why the signal that predicted Colston Loveland's breakout in 2025 was already visible two years earlier in Detroit.
🏈 THE DEEP DIVE — Video 12 Preview
Before the case study — a quick note on this week's video.
Video 12 drops Wednesday at 3pm GMT.
"How the Patriots Went From 4 Wins to the Super Bowl in One Season"
In 2024 the New England Patriots won four games. One year later they were in the Super Bowl. The fastest turnaround in modern NFL history — and they did it without a genuine WR1.
Now Drake Maye has AJ Brown. A rebuilt offensive line. A 23-year-old quarterback who finished 3rd in PFF grade in just his second season.
The data says this is just the beginning.
Full breakdown on the channel at 3pm Wednesday — link below.
📊 THE FANTASY EDGE STATS TABLE — Historical Case Study #4
How the target share signal predicted Sam LaPorta's record-breaking 2023 rookie season before anyone was paying attention
The situation — September 2023
It was Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. The Detroit Lions had drafted Sam LaPorta in the second round — 34th overall out of Iowa. A solid prospect. A well-regarded college tight end. But nothing in his draft profile suggested what was about to happen.
Most fantasy managers had LaPorta ranked as a late-round flier. A developmental piece behind TJ Hockenson, who had just been traded to Minnesota. The consensus view was that LaPorta would take time to develop in his first year.
The target share signal disagreed from the very first game.
What the numbers showed
Here's what LaPorta's weekly target share looked like across the first six weeks of the 2023 season:
Week | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 22% |
Week 2 | 8 | 5 | 45 | 19% |
Week 3 | 11 | 9 | 140 | 27% |
Week 4 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 21% |
Week 5 | 10 | 7 | 89 | 24% |
Week 6 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 23% |
By Week 6 LaPorta had established himself as one of Jared Goff's most reliable first reads. In Ben Johnson's system — the most analytically sophisticated offence in the NFL at the time — a tight end appearing on 20-27% of passing plays in each of the first six weeks was not an accident. It was a deliberate system decision.
The managers who saw the consistent 20%+ target share in Week 2 had a genuine TE1 asset at a fraction of his market value. Most managers waited until Week 5 or 6 when the national conversation caught up. By then the waiver priority was gone.
The signal that mattered most
The raw target numbers were clear enough. But the deeper signal was route participation rate — the percentage of passing plays on which LaPorta ran a route.
In Johnson's system, route participation above 80% for a tight end confirmed that the coaching staff had made a permanent role decision — not a temporary fill-in. LaPorta's route participation rate held above 80% from Week 1. He wasn't being used as a situational weapon. He was the primary first read in the intermediate passing game from the very first snap.
The yards per route run confirmed it. By mid-season LaPorta was generating 2.3 yards per route run — a number that ranked him among the top three tight ends in the entire NFL despite being a rookie.
The snap rate, the route participation and the yards per route run all pointed to the same conclusion by Week 3: Ben Johnson had decided that LaPorta was his tight end.
What happened next
LaPorta finished the 2023 season with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns — the first Lions tight end to lead all NFL tight ends in receiving touchdowns in a single season. His 10 receiving scores tied Rob Gronkowski for the second-most by a rookie tight end in NFL history. A record that had stood for 62 years — Mike Ditka's 1961 rookie receiving yards mark — was within reach by mid-season.
Then in the postseason he set the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie tight end in a single postseason with 21 catches.
The target share signal called it in Week 2. The statistics confirmed it by Week 7. The record books ratified it in January.
The gap between those three moments is where the fantasy edge lives.
The 2026 connection
This is exactly why Colston Loveland is the most interesting tight end asset heading into 2026 — and why his Short on the channel this week highlighted the TE2 signal from Week 9 onwards.
The LaPorta-Loveland parallel is striking. Both were second-round picks in Ben Johnson's offensive system. Both immediately became the system's primary tight end target. Both showed route participation rates above 80% from early in their rookie seasons.
The key difference is what comes next. LaPorta's 2024 season showed a natural step back — 60 catches, 726 yards, 7 TDs — as the Lions' offence diversified around Gibbs, Williams and St Brown. Loveland enters 2026 with the opposite dynamic. DJ Moore is gone. The target hierarchy is wider open than it's ever been.
Watch Loveland's route participation rate and target share in the first two weeks of the 2026 season. If it mirrors LaPorta's 2023 pattern — 80%+ route participation, 20%+ target share — the breakout is confirmed.
The LaPorta signal was there in Week 2 of 2023. Most managers missed it.
Next week: Jordan Addison 2023 — the rookie route runner.
🧠 THE ANALYST'S EDGE
This week: The Route Participation Rate — confirming a role change before the stats catch up
The route participation rate is the most reliable confirmation signal in the target hierarchy framework. Here's how to use it:
What it is: The percentage of passing plays on which a receiver runs a route.
Why it works: A receiver running routes on 80%+ of passing plays is making a permanent statement about their role in the offence. Coaching staffs don't give 80%+ route participation to players they're unsure about. When a tight end — historically the position most likely to be used situationally — hits that threshold consistently, it means the coaching staff has made a deliberate system decision.
The three questions to ask:
Is the route participation rate above 80% for two or more consecutive weeks?
Is the target share above 20% in those same weeks?
Is the yards per route run trending toward 2.0 or above?
If the answer to all three is yes — the role is confirmed. The statistics will catch up within three to four weeks.
LaPorta answered all three in Week 2 of 2023.
📅 COMING SOON — The Fantasy Edge
A quick reminder — The Fantasy Edge course launches in July.
The full route participation signal — along with five other role change indicators — is covered in Module 2 of the course. The same framework that called LaPorta in Week 2 of 2023 is yours permanently with one payment.
Waitlist opens 22 June. Waitlist members get the lowest price we'll ever offer.
📺 THIS WEEK ON THE CHANNEL
Video 12 is live Wednesday at 3pm GMT — "How the Patriots Went From 4 Wins to the Super Bowl in One Season."
Two Shorts follow Thursday and Friday.
See you Wednesday.
— The NFL Lens
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