Hey,
Welcome back to Issue 6 of The NFL Lens Newsletter.
This week's historical case study is one of the most dramatic target hierarchy signals in recent NFL history — and almost nobody acted on it in time.
🏈 THE DEEP DIVE — Video 11 Preview
Before the case study — a quick note on this week's video.
Video 11 drops Wednesday at 3pm GMT.
"The Chicago Bears Did Something No Team Has Done Since 1971."
In 2024 the Chicago Bears had the worst offence in the entire NFL. One year later they did something no team had done in over fifty years.
The data says the football world is still underrating what Ben Johnson built in Chicago — and the fantasy implications are significant.
Full breakdown on the channel at 3pm Wednesday.
📊 THE FANTASY EDGE STATS TABLE — Historical Case Study #3
How the target hierarchy data predicted Puka Nacua's record-breaking 2023 rookie season before anyone was paying attention
The situation — September 2023
It was Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Cooper Kupp — the Rams' established WR1, one of the best receivers in football — was sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Rams were coming off an injury-ravaged 2022 season. Nobody was expecting much.
Into that vacancy stepped Puka Nacua. A fifth-round pick from BYU, 177th overall. Undrafted in most fantasy leagues. Available on virtually every waiver wire in America.
In his NFL debut he caught ten passes for 119 yards.
The target hierarchy signal was lit up in bright green from the very first snap.
What the numbers showed
Here's what Nacua's target share looked like across the first four weeks of the 2023 season:
Week | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 15 | 10 | 119 | 38% |
Week 2 | 12 | 8 | 81 | 31% |
Week 3 | 14 | 9 | 156 | 35% |
Week 4 | 11 | 7 | 98 | 33% |
By Week 8 he had accumulated 39.4% of the Rams' entire receiving yards — the fourth highest rate in the entire NFL, behind only Ja'Marr Chase, AJ Brown, DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill.
A fifth-round rookie was being targeted at the same rate as the best receivers in football.
The signal that mattered most
The raw target numbers were obvious enough. But the deeper signal was where those targets were coming from.
Nacua wasn't getting garbage time targets or check-down catches. He was the first read on designed passing concepts. Sean McVay — one of the most sophisticated offensive minds in football — was building his entire passing game around a player nobody had drafted in fantasy.
The yards per route run confirmed it. By the end of the season Nacua posted 2.7 yards per route run — eighth in the entire NFL. A fifth-round rookie operating as efficiently as an established WR1.
The managers who saw the first-read signal in Week 1 had the single best waiver wire pickup of the season. Most managers waited until Week 5 or 6 when the national conversation caught up. By then he was gone from every waiver wire in the country.
What happened next
Nacua finished the 2023 season with 105 receptions for 1,486 receiving yards — both NFL rookie records, breaking marks that had stood since 1960.
The target hierarchy called it in Week 1. The statistics confirmed it in Week 5. The record books ratified it in Week 17.
The gap between those three moments is where the fantasy edge lives.
The 2026 connection
This is why Colston Loveland is the most interesting fantasy asset on the Chicago Bears roster heading into 2026.
The Nacua parallel is striking. A rookie who immediately became the first read in a sophisticated offensive system. A target share that outpaced his draft position by a significant margin. A coaching staff that designed plays specifically around his strengths.
Loveland posted 1.98 yards per route run as a rookie — third among all rookie tight ends since 2011, behind only Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts. The first Bears rookie to lead the team in receiving since 1983.
The Moore trade has opened the target hierarchy further. Watch Loveland's route participation rate and snap share in the first two weeks of the 2026 season. If he's running routes on 80%+ of passing plays and drawing first-read targets — the hierarchy position is confirmed.
The Nacua signal told the same story in Week 1 of 2023. Most managers missed it.
Next week: Sam LaPorta 2023 — the tight end nobody drafted.
🧠 THE ANALYST'S EDGE
This week: The Target Share Signal — how to identify a first read before the stats confirm it
The target share signal is the fastest way to identify a newly established first read. Here's how to use it:
What it is: A receiver's target share rising above 30% for two or more consecutive weeks.
Why it works: Target share above 30% in a McVay-style system means the coaching staff is designing plays specifically around that player. It's not accident — it's intent. When a coaching staff decides someone is the first read, the target share reflects that decision within one or two games.
The three questions to ask:
Is the target share above 30% for two or more consecutive weeks?
Are the targets coming from designed routes rather than checkdowns or garbage time?
Is the yards per route run trending toward 2.5 or above?
If the answer to all three is yes — the signal is confirmed. Act before the statistics make it obvious.
Nacua answered all three in Week 1.
📅 COMING SOON — The Fantasy Edge
The Fantasy Edge course launches in July.
The full target share signal — along with five other role change indicators — is covered in complete detail in Module 4 of the course. Seven templates. Nine modules. One payment. No subscription.
Waitlist opens in late June. Waitlist members get the lowest price we'll ever offer.
More details coming very soon.
📺 THIS WEEK ON THE CHANNEL
Video 11 is live Wednesday at 3pm GMT — "The Chicago Bears Did Something No Team Has Done Since 1971."
Two Shorts follow Thursday and Friday.
See you Wednesday.
— The NFL Lens
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